Editor’s Introduction: Hi there. In this week’s Asia Policy Brief, ASPI’s Director for Political-Security Affairs Emma Chanlett-Avery breaks down the collapse of the coalition between the LDP and Komeito following Takaichi’s election and implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance and Japan’s regional leadership.
State of Affairs: The Divorce of the LDP and Komeito
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s leadership election on October 4 delivered a surprise: Sanae Takaichi, a staunch conservative, sailed to victory over several other contenders. She is likely—although not certain—to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister when the Parliament votes later this month. A protégé of the former powerful leader Shinzo Abe, Takaichi defied expectations not only because of her gender but because she hailed from a modest, non-political background, a break from Japan’s tradition of dynastic politics. Deeply conservative on social issues and hawkish on China, she supports amending the Japanese constitution, including the pacifist Article Nine clause that renounces war and forbids the use of military force to settle disputes.
Takaichi inherits an LDP in crisis. Under its predecessor, the ruling coalition lost its majority in both houses of Japan’s Parliament (known as the Diet) as voters registered their disappointment with inflation, frustration with an influx of tourists and immigrants, and Tokyo’s inability to negotiate a more favorable trade deal with Washington. In the days since Takaichi’s election, the coalition’s junior partner for the past 26 years, the Komeito party, broke from the LDP, setting off a scramble to court other opposition parties and throwing Takaichi’s bid for prime minister in flux. With the Diet’s scheduled vote postponed, several opposition parties could unite to elect another candidate, requiring substantial concessions by each party on issues core to their constituencies. Komeito continues to hold considerable leverage given its bloc of votes. With the vote scheduled just days before President Trump’s anticipated visit to Tokyo, Takaichi remains the favorite to become Japan’s next leader.
Why Does It Matter: Weakened Leadership at Home and Abroad
Without the pacifist Komeito in the ruling coalition, Japanese politics is almost certain to shift to the right. While Japan has moved significantly but deliberately to acquire more defense capabilities, it is unclear if a new coalition’s policies will destabilize existing cooperation with the United States and other security partners. Given the range of challenges the new leader will face both domestically and abroad, the premiership may be short-lived, and Japan could produce a series of weak and ineffective leaders that quickly revolve out of power. In the past, this pattern has frustrated U.S. policymakers: the lack of policy continuity led Japan to be slow and indecisive in coordinating with U.S. priorities, particularly on security matters. However, Washington’s unpredictability may narrow Takaichi’s task to effectively navigating the incoming demands from the Trump administration on trade and defense spending.
Japan also faces a severe regional security landscape. China, Russia, and North Korea’s partnership is strengthening just as the United States is preoccupied with its own domestic political turmoil. Takaichi is also known as a virulent China hawk. Her visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine have infuriated both Beijing and Seoul in the past. If she goes as prime minister, the historical grievances that have stymied Tokyo-Seoul relations could resurface and arrest recent cooperative relations. With the two democratic U.S. allies at odds, the prospect for productive trilateralism with the United States is troubled. Beyond trilateral ties with Korea, Japan has developed a reputation as a stabilizing force in the region, trusted as a reliable and steady partner for Southeast Asia and beyond. For countries resisting economic coercion or security pressure from Beijing, Japan has offered an alternative as a trade partner and supporter of regional norms. If Japan is consumed by contentious political battles at home, its ability to serve as a counterweight and to build partnerships with other powers may be compromised.
What to Watch: How Far is the Swing to the Right?
Assuming Takaichi is elected, her hardline stances in foreign policy matters will be tested. As leader, will she continue her pilgrimages to the Yasukuni Shrine, particularly on politically sensitive anniversaries, that would almost certainly chill relations with Seoul? Or will she repeat statements that celebrate Japan’s imperial conquests, with the potential to anger countries beyond Korea? For regional partnerships like the Quad, will Tokyo step up to keep stabilizing frameworks in place, particularly if the ruling party is embattled at home?
Taikaichi’s next moves will reveal how she plans to position the LDP within Japan’s current political landscape. The doveish Komeito party has traditionally served as a brake on more muscular security policies. Will Taikaichi pivot to partnerships with the rising group of right-wing parties or instead pursue ad-hoc coalitions for specific economic and security priorities? Can she balance her objectives and strategies with the establishment LDP politicians who supported her candidacy? Her political choices may be restrained by the LDP’s political predicament, but her direction will determine how and if the party that has controlled Japan for nearly all of its post-war years can avoid collapse.
Relations with the United States may face an early test when Trump visits the region the coming weeks. Takaichi may be able to curry favor with Trump by playing up her close ties with the late Shinzo Abe, but challenges abound. Japan faces burden-sharing negotiations with Washington in the coming year that threaten to demand multifold increases in Japan’s contributions. If elected, she will need to satisfy some U.S. demands to keep U.S. assurances in place, without losing faith with her public. Takaichi has certainly made history, but her ultimate legacy in this challenging landscape is yet to be determined.
Dive Deeper with ASPI:
Read ASPI’s latest report, “Cementing the Quad in the Indo-Pacific,” written by Emma Chanlett-Avery and Farwa Aamer.
Watch a panel discussion on “Cementing the Quad: Power, Partnership, and Regional Purpose,” where Emma Chanlett-Avery and other experts assess the evolving role of the Quad and its future trajectory amid bilateral tensions, U.S. policy shifts, and changing geopolitical dynamics.
Read Wendy Cutler’s recent op-ed, “Why Asia Has Huge Stakes in U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal Review” in the South China Morning Post.