By Taylah Bland
Editor’s Introduction: Hi there. In this week’s Asia Policy Brief, Taylah Bland, Senior Program Officer for the China Climate Hub and a Fellow on Climate and the Environment with ASPI’s Center for China Analysis (CCA), assesses China’s NDC announcement last week and what it really means for China’s global climate leadership.
State of Affairs: Conservative Climate Commitments from Beijing
Pledging less, delivering more—but is it enough?
Few national pledges carry as much weight for the international community’s climate trajectory as those made by China. On September 24, President Xi Jinping, via video, announced China’s new climate targets, or Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), at the United Nations Secretary General’s Special High-Level Climate Action event. The Summit was intended to serve as a forcing mechanism on NDCs, which serve as an individual country’s commitment to advancing climate action under the Paris Agreement and are expected to be updated every five years.
China’s latest NDC sets forth a set of new targets including reducing net economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 7-10% from peak levels, increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30%, expanding installed capacity of wind and solar power to over six times the 2020 levels, and striving to total 3600 GW. Notably, this is the first absolute, economy-wide GHG emissions target for China. However, the NDC fell short of expectations.
The tone of the announcement was cautious and ultimately did not meet the standard from climate policy practitioners or the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres for countries to significantly strengthen their pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil.
Domestically, the pledge reflects a changing economic and energy landscape. After years of breakneck growth, China’s economy has slowed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Energy security has re-emerged as a priority following severe power shortages in 2021 and 2022, reinforcing China’s dependence on coal and complicating the transition to aggressive decarbonization.
Internationally, the election of U.S. President Donald Trump and his significant climate policy rollbacks, a rightward shift in European politics and ongoing tensions over Ukraine and trade have created a fragmented geopolitical context where climate ambition is harder to sustain.
Still, the picture is not entirely pessimistic. China has become the world’s clean technology powerhouse, dominating supply chains with over 80% of the world’s solar panels, around 75% of electric vehicle batteries and more than 60% of wind turbines. China’s domestic CO₂ emissions are stabilizing, renewable energy is accounting for increases in energy demand, and structural shifts in industry could enable an earlier-than-expected emissions peak. But whether this progress translates into stronger climate leadership remains an open question.
Why It Matters: A Reality Check on China’s Climate Leadership
Despite its recent progress, China remains the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, responsible for around 30% of global emissions. A China Climate Hub survey of research, including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments, finds that to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, China would need to reduce its GHG emissions by at least 30% from the peak by 2035. To stay within the 2°C limit, a cut of at least 20% would be necessary. At 7-10%, China’s current commitment falls significantly short.
While China is known for its “under promise and overdeliver” approach to climate commitments—and there is confidence it will exceed its 2035 NDC targets—its limited ambition raises the question of why it couldn’t have aimed higher. While the aforementioned domestic and international factors provide some insight as to why, another consideration remains. Some targets from the previous NDC remain unmet, so a more conservative pledge helps maintain political legitimacy and aligns with Beijing’s preferred delivery-first strategy.
That said, a broader question is whether China’s strategy should be replicated by other countries. Nations tend to fall into two categories: those that set overly ambitious goals and fail to meet them, and those that set modest targets but exceed expectations. A third, less common scenario is when a country sets ambitious goals and actually achieves them. These scenarios generate an overarching question of how climate leadership is measured. Beyond questions over which path countries should follow is a need to understand that action in the real economy matters more than targets. On that basis, China is demonstrating and delivering on its ambition.
One positive development to come from the new NDC was China’s announcement of plans to build a “climate-adaptive society.” Although specific details remain unclear, this marks a notable shift—China has traditionally focused more on mitigation than on adaptation and resilience. China has been no stranger to the unfortunate climate impacts of extreme weather. Extreme heat, floods, hailstorms, and drought have continued to cause havoc in China with natural disasters during the first half of 2025 affecting over 23 million people, resulting in direct economic losses of CNY 54.1 billion (USD 7.6 billion). While China has stepped up its adaptation efforts in domestic legislation, elevating these goals to the level of the NDC is a welcome sign.
What to Watch: From Pledges to Implementation
Will COP30 address the global ambition gap? China has pledged to submit its NDC formally to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) before COP30, and a meticulous reading of the full document will provide more detail into some of the headline targets. There is also the need for China to support Brazil and other countries in putting forward a strong response to the NDC ambition gap as a priority outcome from COP30. As the world’s largest emitter, China’s actions will be critical to keeping the 1.5°C target within reach.
How will implementation be integrated into China’s 15th Five-Year Plan? China’s 15th (2026-2030) and 16th Five-Year Plans (2030–2035) will be the main vehicles for turning this NDC 3.0 into action. Additional domestic policy measures will need to deliver on these action points and relies on the coordination of various government departments to prioritize implementation.
Dive Deeper with ASPI:
Read Li Shuo and Kate Logan’s latest analysis for ASPI, “Unpacking China’s New Headline Climate Targets.”
Read Li Shuo’s recent op-ed in The New York Times, “China is the Adult in the Room on Climate Now.”
Read Taylah Bland’s recent op-ed in the Australian Financial Review, “Why are Xi’s Climate Targets So Tiny?”