Thailand in Transition: The Fall of the Shinawatras, A New Prime Minister, and What Comes Next
Editor’s Introduction: Hi there. In today’s Asia Policy Brief, Bryanna Entwistle, ASPI’s Press and Program Officer, breaks down the latest developments in Thai politics following a dramatic summer that has resulted in the election Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. The next few months could be a watershed moment for the country and the region.
State of Affairs: An Oust and Unlikely Coalition
On September 7th, Anutin Charnvirakul of Thailand’s Bhumjaithai party took office as prime minister—the country’s third in two years. His election ended a summer of stalemate following former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s suspension from office in early July. Amidst an escalating border crisis between Thailand and Cambodia, a phone call was leaked in which Paetongtarn criticized the Thai military and sounded overtly differential to Cambodian strongman Hun Sen. The leaked call incited a political firestorm as calls for her resignation mounted, eventually leading to a Constitutional Court hearing and her dismissal from office on August 29.
An unlikely alliance between Thailand’s conservative Bhumjaithai and progressive People’s Party cleared the way for Anutin’s bid. The pro-military and pro-monarchy proclivities of the Bhumjaithai party means that they are ideologically opposed to People’s Party’s calls to limit military influence in politics and end a law that criminalizes insulting the monarchy. However, as part of the agreement that precipitated their support of Anutin, the People’s Party made the Bhumjaithai promise to call a general election within four months of swearing in the new prime minister and start the process to amend the constitution. Whether or not the Bhumjaithai party upholds these promises will determine the direction of Thailand’s democracy; the next few months could be a watershed moment for the country and the region.
Why It Matters: A New Era for Thai Politics?
Thai politics can be divided into three main camps: Thaksinites, supporters of the political parties connected to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, which have produced six prime ministers since 2001; establishment-aligned conservatives like Bhumjaithai; and the progressives, represented primarily by the People’s Party. The military and aligned conservative parties have long tried to stymie the populist appeal of the Shinawatras: both Thaksin and his sister, Yingluck, were deposed by military coups and four other Shinawatra-backed leaders were dismissed by the Monarchy-aligned Constitutional Court. Despite this, Shinawatra-aligned politicians have remained a consistent force in Thai politics. Following a period of military rule after the 2014 coup that deposed Yingluck, the Shinawatra-backed Pheu Thai Party once again assumed power in 2023 through a deal with the establishment elite that enabled Srettha Thavisin and later Paetongtarn to become prime minister—a joint attempt to limit the ascendence of progressive forces.
But recent events may have struck a fatal blow to the Shinawatra dynasty. Following Paetongtarn’s removal and Bhumjaithai’s victory, on September 9th Thaksin Shinawatra was ordered to spend a year in prison after the Thai Supreme Court ruled that he did not properly serve a sentence for abuse and corruption following his return to Thailand from 15 years of self-imposed exile.
As the Thai political status quo is rewritten, the impending general election could move Thailand in one of two directions: a shift towards reform with the People’s Party or a regression towards consolidated military and royalist control. During the 2023 general election, there were brief hopes of the resurgence of democracy when voters handed the Move Forward Party (MFP), the predecessor to the People’s Party, a decisive electoral victory. However, MFP’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, was blocked from forming a government and assuming the office of prime minister by the Thai Senate, which had been given the right to vote on a prime minister by a temporary provision of the 2017 military-sponsored Constitution. The Constitutional Court then disbanded MFP and barred its leaders from running for office for 10 years—a move that prompted “deep concern” from the U.S. and several human rights groups.
This time may be different. The temporary provision that gave the Senate a role in electing the Thai Prime Minister expired in 2024, clearing the principal barrier that prevented Pita Limjaroenrat and his MFP from assuming leadership in 2023. If the People’s Party were to replicate or improve upon its 2023 electoral performance, it would likely be in a strong position to lead the formation of the next government and secure the premiership. Such an outcome would install a government in Bangkok that aligns more closely with Western values, a development that may slow or reverse Bangkok’s increasing tilt towards Beijing—since the 2014 coup, Thailand has become increasingly reliant on Chinese trade, investment, arms, and diplomatic support. The growing ties between the two countries were further highlighted earlier this year when Bangkok sent at least 40 Uyghur men that they had detained back to China, a move met with international condemnation and sanctions from the U.S.
However, the military and royal establishment may simply end up consolidating power. Conservative forces in Thailand have repeatedly used both military and judicial measures to dissolve opposition parties and could do so again, even if the People’s Party were to win the general election. There is also the possibility that the Bhumjaithai party forms a new coalition and reneges on its promise to the People’s Party of dissolving parliament and organizing a general election.
What to Watch: Reform, Realignment, and the Road Ahead
Frustrated Youth: This summer Gen-Z led protests have rattled governments across Asia. Should Anutin walk back on his promise to call an election in four months, Peoples Party’s supporters—primarily younger Thais—may use this opportunity to make their desire for democratic reform heard. It has happened before: in 2020, thousands of young Thais marched for democracy and were met with riot police, water cannons, and over 2,000 charges of royal defamation.
Constitutional Reform: Serious questions exist around Bhumjaithai’s supposed commitment to calling a referendum on the constitution before the general election date. One area of reform that will be of interest to Anutin, however, is cannabis regulation, as he previously led the push to decriminalize the drug as health minister.
Economic Woes: While the Bhumjaithai government might only be in power for four months, excluding the caretaker period, Anutin has laid out an ambitious plan to right Thailand’s sinking economic ship. Thailand’s economy is forecast to grow just 1.8% this year, and tariffs from the U.S. have only compounded this struggle. Anutin has appointed outside economic experts to lead technical trade talks with the U.S. and move a free trade agreement with the EU across the line by the end of the year.
Thai-Cambodia Border Conflict: The Bhumjaithai government has expressed its full support of upholding the ceasefire that ended five days of intense fighting on Thailand’s border with Cambodia. At a meeting of the General Border Commission on September 11th, both sides have agreed to withdraw heavy weaponry, begin joint de-mining operations, and move towards opening trade routes. Cambodian PM Hun Manet wrote to Anutin shortly after his victory, congratulating him on his election and pledging to work together to normalize relations, an indication that the new government might offer a needed reset to relations.
Dive Deeper with ASPI:
Read a recent op-ed by Rishi Gupta for The Diplomat on “The Gen Z Protest in Nepal Exposes Systemic Governance Failure.”
Watch ASPI’s webinar on “Unpacking the Thailand Cambodia Border Conflict,” moderated by Bryanna Entwistle.
Explore ASPI’s online hub, The Ballot Box: Why Elections Matter for Asia, for timely updates, in-depth insights, and expert analysis on elections and political transitions across Asia.